NBA Summer League and NBA Season Predictions

Weird off-season so far, definitely. Grant Hill walked to a contender for about 92mill less than his last contract. Rashard Lewis somehow became a max player. The draft was interesting. Randolph got traded from the Trailblazers…I believe I called that one a while ago, but he didn’t go to the team I thought he would.

I actually got a chance to watch the Pistons Summer League team play on NBA TV. The kids look good. Afflalo looks to be very much in the Lindsey Hunter mode, and Stuckey looks great. I’m still concerned about that front-line for my Pistons though…oh well, I’m sure Joe will do something, or nothing…whatever.

Anyway, here’s my top 5 teams to watch next year (these being teams that won’t necessarily be good, but they’ll be fun to watch):
1. Portland Trailblazers: Oden’s going to be fun to watch along with the rest of a well put together team.
2. Memphis Grizzlies: Milicic will be good next to Gasol.
3. Toronto Raptors: The kids will just get better.
4. Boston Celtics: Allen’s going to help these kids grow up a little faster.
5. New York Knicks: Randolph and Curry in the same frontcourt….oh boy.


That being said, I’m predicting one of these following teams will win next year’s championship:
1. San Antonio Spurs: Did nothing, they don’t need to.
2. Dallas Mavericks: Still searching for Webber for Stevie Franchise…
3. Phoenix Suns: Adding G. Hill will solidify their locker-room.
4. Detroit Pistons: The kids will help the starters and push them enough.
5. Chicago Bulls: Another year of growing, Joe Smith helps.

Later Y’all! Time to look forward to college football season!

NBA Referee's Racist?

Everyone's a rittle bit lacist...even NBA Refs.

I have to say, I’m surprised Mark Cuban probably didn’t already know this when he did all of his deconstructing of the referees a couple of years back. It is kinda funny that he owns one of the first teams to really diversify itself with players from many many different countries.

Regardless, I started reading this this morning on the Detroit News website, where I go first thing every morning to read everything I can about the Pistons. There it was, quoted from the NY Times original article:

“An academic study of the National Basketball Association, whose playoffs continue tonight, suggests that a racial bias found in other parts of American society has existed on the basketball court as well.

A coming paper by a University of Pennsylvania professor and a Cornell University graduate student says that, during the 13 seasons from 1991 through 2004, white referees called fouls at a greater rate against black players than against white players.

Justin Wolfers, an assistant professor of business and public policy at the Wharton School, and Joseph Price, a Cornell graduate student in economics, found a corresponding bias in which black officials called fouls more frequently against white players, though that tendency was not as strong.“

The article goes onto state that the “different rates at which fouls are called ‘is large enough that the probability of a team winning is noticeably affected by the racial composition of the refereeing crew assigned to the game.’”

Crazy. David Stern must have seen this and flipped.

Truth be told, I agree with David Berri when he’s quoted saying ““I would be more surprised if it didn’t exist,” Mr. Ayres said of an implicit association bias in the N.B.A. ‘There’s a growing consensus that a large proportion of racialized decisions is not driven by any conscious race discrimination, but that it is often just driven by unconscious, or subconscious, attitudes. When you force people to make snap decisions, they often can’t keep themselves from subconsciously treating blacks different than whites, men different from women.’”

They re-ran the numbers, doing multiple different reports, but kept coming up with the same results. What’s the NBA to do besides vehemently deny? Most likely, nothing. There’s nothing you can do, as long as you have live people refereeing your games. It’s just going to happen. Still, this is just another public relations black eye for the NBA referees, most recently and notably the Joey Crawford blowup with Tim Duncan.

Are These Two Ref'd Differently?

By the way, the Times talked to Cuban, “We’re all human. We all have our own prejudice. That’s the point of doing statistical analysis. It bears it out in this application, as in a thousand others.” That’s one of the fun things about being in statistical analysis, the data doesn’t lie.

I always did think it was kinda funny to have a bunch of mostly middle-aged old white guys “policing” a mostly black league though…maybe it’s time to diversify more with the refs. Of course, if most of the players weren’t spoiled whiny brats on the court too, that would help as well. I think there’s a middle ground there somewhere, but I don’t see them getting to it anytime soon. Watch though, this won’t be the last time the refs will be called into question in these playoffs. Heck, I remember the firestorm last year dealing with Dwayne Wade getting every single call in the playoffs.

Just makes me want to watch something more noble as a sport, like Hockey…or even Professional Wrestling.

Pacers Fire head coach Rick Carlisle

Rick Carlisle was fired Wednesday after four tumultuous years as Indiana Pacers coach, following a season in which the team did not make the playoffs for the first time in a decade.
read more digg story


With my affiliation to a certain Detroit team (read: HUGE PISTONS FAN!!!), you wouldn’t think I would even care what’s going on at what was once our most hated of rivals: The Indiana Pacers. Unfortunately, Carlisle is a former Piston, and I just haven’t felt like Detroit has been the same since the Palace Brawl, even though the Pacers have definitely been affected more. Anyway, returning the Pacers to challenge the Pistons would just be another team to keep them on their toes.

Anyway, Carlisle was just let go by the Pacer organization. He’ll find a job elsewhere, that’s for certain. Unfortunately for him, coaches of his ilk are no longer in vogue as they were a couple of years ago when the Pistons let him go. He’s of the “Grind-It-Out” style, which has definitely lost it’s luster the last couple of years. Even though Detroit and San Antonio won championships in 2004 and 2005 with those type of styles, and Miami’s style last year was more an amalgam of styles. The pure “Grind-It-Out” style just won’t win anymore with the various rules changes on defense. As such, you’re going to see more motion styles (like Eddie Jordan, or Lawrence Frank) or straight up Run-And-Gun styles (Mike D’Antoni). There’s just not that many teams that lend themselves to the “Grind” style anymore. But, given Carlisle’s W/L record, someone will take a chance on him.

Fixing the Pacer team though, is a completely different issue. They need to set an identity and get a coach that fits that identity. With all the available candidates out there, they can go in a bunch of different directions. Let’s assume they want to emulate most of the other “In” styles of right now…the Motion style (since no one can really run the straight up Run-And-Gun besides the Suns and the Warriors). First choice should be to go with Suns Assistant Marc Iavoroni. Odds are he’ll end up in Toronto, though. Second choice should be Rick Adelman. He ran a very efficient offense in Sacremento that would work very well with the players on the Pacers. Third choice would be Sam Mitchell. Sam’s shown he can adapt styles if need be like he did this year with the Raptors.

Assuming they get the Coach they want, next they need a little turnover on their roster. Not too many tweaks, in the long run. First thing is to get rid of Jermaine O’Neal. Nice player, but he doesn’t fit the system, plus he’d do better on a team that he didn’t have to be the primary option. I propose you trade him to the Wizards for Antawn Jamison and Antonio Daniels. Daniels adds a nice proponent to run the type of offense you want, and he can still get it his own shot if need be, plus he’s a better shooter than Jamaal Tinsley. Antawn would do great in the offense alongside Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy. Next you turn around and trade Jamaal Tinsley to the Orlando Magic for JJ Redick and Carlos Arroyo. This would subtract Tinsley, who’s just never going to work out in Indiana, for an international flavor who can push the tempo in Arroyo, and a sharpshooter in Redick. If you can’t swing Redick, go out and get a sharpshooter (think Steve Blake or Jason Kapono). You need to have a couple of people who can hit something from outside. The final thing you need to do is get rid of Dunleavy. Trade him and Harrison to his Dad for Corey Maggette, or just dump him for hustle guys. Regardless, he shouldn’t be taking up shots from Jamison, Redick, Kapono or Murphy. Also, work out a deal with Seattle for Rashard Lewis. How bout Lewis for Daniels, Granger, and Diogu.

Making these moves, the opening day roster would look like this:

PG: Antonio Daniels
SG: JJ Redick
SF: Rashard Lewis
PF: Antawn Jamison
C: Troy Murphy

With backups:
Jeff Foster
Carlos Arroyo
Jason Kapono
Corey Maggette
Shawne Williams
Keith McLeod
Maceo Baston
Orien Greene
Rawle Marshall

That leaves enough room for a good draft pick or two. That would be a team that could contend in the East, with the right offense installed. I’m sure they’d be incredibly fun to watch as well. Plus, they’d be a good warmup for the Pistons to beat before they beat the Suns in the Finals next year. ;-)

Top Ten Things that are worth paying more attention to than Imus and his f*ckup.

Imus.

Anyone sick of that name yet? Talk about over-exposure. Much has been made of Imus’ comments on his radio show about the Rutgers Women’s Basketball team. First, they suspended Imus for two weeks without pay. Then, companies are pulling their commercial dollars and running for the hills. Now, MSNBC is canceling the simulcast of his radio show. Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton continue to attack him.

Much has been written not necessarily defending Imus, but not vilifying him either. My personal fav is Michelle Malkin’s Imus vs. Billboard Hot Rap Tracks Chart. It brings up some good points on the double standard that’s currently killing Imus. Then there’s this point of view at Politopics and this one from Earl Ofari Hutchinson. These all bring up good points.

Here’s 3 things I think (if you don’t care, just scroll down to the Top Ten^_^)

I think everyone in this country is in some way shape and form, whether they want to be or not, racist. At least a little bit. Once everyone excepts that, this world will be a better place. Call it the Avenue Q Social Theory. I’m not saying everyone out there is a bigot. I’m just saying, all people think things that can be construed as racist, and all people, at one time or another, have said something that could be construed as racist, even if meant as a joke. Imus probably falls into this category…he’s just got more people listening to him, so he’s naturally a bigger target.

I think that the best way this could have been handled, is how you handle bad kids in elementary school…just ignore him. Until Imus had his show pulled from MSNBC, I thought for sure he was going to come out of this better than before he went in. So much free exposure…for something supposedly negative. Exposure…and people like Sharpton or Jesse Jackson, usually go hand in hand. The best way for the Rutgers girls to handle it would be to rise above it…treat it as noise, or a bad joke gone horribly wrong. Unfortunately, the media won’t let it die, which shows they’re not trying to really punish him…

Finally, on a more comedic side of things (I could see South Park running with something like this), if advertisers like Staples and Bigelow Tea aren’t putting their advertising dollars into the show anymore, Imus should go out and find the same people who advertise with any of the rappers on the songs pointed out by Michelle Malkin. He could create a whole different radio career as a Bullworth type character.


Anyway, in the spirit of rising above and not treating this as anything news worthy…here are tens things more worthy of paying attention to than Imus’ F*ckup:

10: Ask A Ninja
They know all.

9: The first picture of the initial Iron Man suit from the upcoming movie.
It looks cool, I trust Favreau on this one. We’re living in some sort of Golden Age for comic movies…enjoy it!


8: The final week of the NBA regular season, and the start of the Playoffs.
The West is crazy, and the Pistons will have fun tearing up the East.

7: Reality TV or…Anna Nicole’s new movie (God rest her soul, it’s what she would have wanted.)

6: Hot Fuzz.

5: The Dresden Files. It’s a good show.

4: Ninja Warrior on G4.
Have you watched this show? Crazy crazy people competing, showing off their insane hand strength. Plus, the commentary is MXC funny.

3: Spider-man 3
It’s gonna rule!

2: The Stanley Cup Playoffs
The first night provided the following:
Sid the Kid’s first Playoff Goal.
A win for the Sharks in the 2nd Overtime.
And a Canucks win in the 4th Overtime. It’s only going to get better.

1: Chicks dude…Chicks.

Other such notables: foot fungus, watching paint dry or water boil, WHO’S WANTS A BODY MASSAGE, and finally Professional Wrestling.

Got anymore? Leave em in the comments!

Update: IMUS was FIRED yesterday. What a sad sad day for all involved that it came to that.

NBA Detroit Pistons: To Trade or Not to Trade...

The trade deadline in the NBA is upon us. For those of you who know me, you know my undying love for the NBA and all things to do with the Detroit Pistons. As such, I’ve used ESPN’s trade machine to investigate the Pistons roster, and the roster of every other team in the NBA. I’ve got a couple of trades that would technically make sense. Here they are, with the Pro’s, Con’s, and chances of it happening.

First let’s look at what the Pistons have to trade and what they’re looking for.

The Pistons two greatest trade assets at this point are Nazr Mohammed and Flip Murray. Both of these guys were prized signees in the offseason. Flip was essentially signed to a one year deal worth just over 1 Million dollars (with a player option for another year). Nazr was signed to essentially replace Ben Wallace (who really can do that?) at 5 years starting at 5.2 Million Dollars. Both of them never really fit in. Flip, unfortunately, is the kind of player who needs a lot of time to be effective…he can’t get that in Detroit. Chauncey and Rip are the main cogs in the guard rotation, with Carlos Delfino and Lindsey Hunter being the main backups. Flip was given every opportunity, but he just can’t be consistent with inconsistent minutes. He’s only really been effective in his career starting anyway. Nazr just didn’t fit in. He has bad hands, and didn’t seem to like to pass (maybe thinking he wouldn’t get the ball back). He’s been replaced in the lineup with Chris Webber, signed after the 76ers cut him free. He’s still young (only 29). There’s still hope he could be effective after this year, if the Pistons can’t resign Webber (which I don’t think is a good deal anyway). Let’s assume though, that they want to trade Nazr, cut their losses, and try again this offseason finding a serviceable big man to go with the best starting 4 in the NBA.

The Pistons’ needs right now are nothing more than to strengthen their bench. They need some decent defense, rebounding, and scoring. They would love another Point Guard who could shoot from the 3 and handle the ball. I’m also assuming they wouldn’t be looking to take on any longterm deals. They have Chauncey, Chris, possibly Antonio looking for money this offseason. Plus, if they deal Nazr, they’ll have to replace him as well. They’re going to need as much flexibility as possible to get all that done, unless what they can get will more than satisfy all those requirements (more on that later).

Trades
Pistons send Nazr Mohammed to the Houston Rockets for Bonzi Wells and Bob Sura.

Bob Sura will essentially be retiring after this year, so the Pistons wouldn’t be on the hook for the last year of his contract. Bonzi Wells was pursued by them in the offseason. He provides excellent rebounding, and can score from outside or the post. It’s a little iffy bringing him in as he’s known as a cancer, but I think the Pistons locker room could survive both him, Rasheed and Webber in the short term.

Nazr would provide insurance in case Yao or Dikembe Mutombo go down with an injury before or during the playoffs. Also, Dikembe won’t be playing for much longer (he’s gotta be at least 60 by now right?) and Jake Tsakalidis isn’t the long-term answer at Center.

Chances: 50%
The Rockets are on a roll right now, probably not looking to rock the boat too much. They would have been more willing to deal Bonzi for Nazr before they picked up Jake Tsakalidis.

Pistons send Flip Murray and Ronald Dupree to the Memphis Grizzlies for Chucky Atkins.

Chucky would provide that additional outside scoring from the bench. He’s in the last year of his contract, and could possibly be resigned cheaply in the offseason. The Grizzlies know he’s not in their long-term plans. Flip might be able to start for the Grizzlies though, and regain his touch. If he does well, he might serve as a long-term solution for them.

Chances: 50%
Odds are, the Grizzlies are holding Chucky as a throw-in with any Pau Gasol deal. If it really doesn’t look like something with Pau will get done, then they might be willing to do a deal with the Pistons. The Pistons will have to outbid the Heat, Lakers, and a host of other teams looking for backup Point help.

Pistons send Flip Murray and Nazr Mohammed to the Los Angeles Clippers for Corey Maggette.

Corey would provide a long-term solution for scoring punch off the bench. I think he could team quite well with Carlos Delfino, Will Blaylock, Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson as quite an exciting run and gun second unit. His contract is only for 7 mill over the next two years. If it didn’t work out this year, he would be a valuable trade asset next year.

Chances: 10%
Corey wants out of LA, but the Pistons don’t have enough to offer in return. The Clips already have Chris Kaman locked into a long-term deal. Nazr would just be a very overpaid backup, and they’d be trading one producing bench headache (Maggette) for another non-producing bench headache (Flip).

Detroit Pistons send Flip Murray and Nazr Mohammed to the Miami Heat for James Posey.

Posey can be had in trade. Pat Riley has made sure everyone knows that. He wants a Point Guard in return though. Flip has shown in the past he can be a decent backup point, and Nazr Mohammed is a better long-term backup to Shaq than Michael Doleac. Posey would provide the Pistons with outside shooting, defense, and an expiring contract off the bench.

Chances: 0%
There’s no way the Heat would help the Pistons, nor is there anyway the Pistons would help the Heat. This is as close to a hated rivalry we have in the East now-a-days.

Pistons send Nazr Mohammed to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Mike James.

Mike James could again pair with Lindsey Hunter to form a formidable defensive pressure duo off the bench. He can score from outside. He showed last year with the Raptors that he can score from pretty much anywhere. He’s also signed to one less year than Nazr, so that saves money. He would have to except that he’d be a permanent bench player unless Chancey walks in free agency.

Mohammed would provide Garnett with a bonafide option at the Center position to provide rebounding, defense, and a decent amount of scoring.

Chances: 25%
Unless the Pistons really think Mike can get back that magic of 3 years ago, he would eventually just turn into a player unsatisfied with coming off the bench. Marko Jaric has also been mentioned in a swap for Nazr.

Pistons send Nazr Mohammed and Flip Murray to the Orlando Magic for Darko Milicic and J.J. Redick.

Oh boy. This would open a whole can of worms for Joe D. Trading two mistakes (Flip and Nazr) for another former mistake in Darko. Darko has proven he can play at least as well as Nazr. The kicker is that his contract ends after this year. The Pistons wouldn’t have to resign. J.J. Redick would provide outside shooting.

Chances: 25%
The Magic would only do this trade if they really thought Darko would walk for nothing this summer and if they already have given up on J.J. Redick. Perhaps a lesser deal for just Darko would go over more smoothly.

Pistons send Nazr Mohammed and Flip Murray to the Sacramento Kings for Corliss Williamson.

Corliss never wanted to leave. That was for sure. He’s in the last year of his contract and would provide instant post scoring off the bench. He could punish all the other small forwards of the East in the Playoffs, and he’s a very under-rated defender.

Chances: 40%
The Kings would probably do this deal in conjuction with dealing Mike Bibby. Nazr would be a good backup option for when Brad Miller goes down, and Flip could fill in for the loss of Mike Bibby.

Pistons send Nazr Mohammed to the Raptors for Morris Peterson.

The Pistons reportedly have been trying to pry MoPete away from the Raptors for awhile now. The question is, do they have the players to get it done. MoPete is in the last year of his deal for 4.55 million. He provides instant scoring off the bench, and could possibly be resigned in the offseason.

Chances: 60%
Chances are that the Pistons get MoPete, but perhaps not for Nazr. In that case a deal of Flip Murray and Dale Davis would also work and would give Flip a tryout with the up-tempo Raptors.

Pistons send No One No Where and wait for the offseason.

Chris Webber isn’t a young guy anymore. He, or Rasheed could get hurt, and Nazr would be their best starting option there. Also, Nazr could develop into more of a long-term solution at the Center position.

Chances: 75%
If no one else in the East does a move (the Heat are trying for Bibby, the Bulls for Gasol), then the Pistons might just stand pat and run with what they have. They also might just save their assets and wait till the offseason to pull off what could be the greatest Piston trade since Mark Aguirre or Rasheed Wallace.

Pistons send Nazr Mohammed, Flip Murray, Rasheed Wallace and draft picks to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Kevin Garnett.

There have always been rumors of the Pistons prying Garnett away from Minnesota to reunite with Flip Saunders. Garnett has a hefty amount left on his contract, but if the Pistons were able to land him, I’m sure they could talk him into opting out and signing a new deal for less money for the chance to win a couple of championships. Also, if they landed Garnett, they probably could talk Webber into resigning for cheap as well to have a great chance of winning another championship (after they win it this year of course). They could resign Chauncey, Webber, Antonio and have a starting five of:
PG Chancey Billups
SG Rip Hamilton
SF Tayshaun Prince
PF Kevin Garnett
C Chris Webber
Bench: Lindsey Hunter, Will Blaylock, (another as yet undetermined shooter), Carlos Delfino, Jason Maxiell, Antonio McDyess, and Amir Johnson. That would be a championship caliber team for as long as they could keep them together.

Chances: 50%
It’s a crapshoot whether or not Garnett would even want to leave Minnesota. If they don’t make the playoffs again this year, I think he might definitely want out, unless Minnesota somehow lands one of the first two picks in the draft. Minnesota could develop Nazr or trade him, Rasheed would provide some edge to a “nice-guy” team, or his contract is more easily moveable than Garnett’s. Flip could start at the Point for the Timberwolves, and I think he’d be a good fit. It all hinges on Garnett. If he actually wants out, the Pistons have a better than average shot of getting him…unless the Bulls still have all their pieces (IE: they don’t trade for Gasol, which I think they should), in which case they would be the only team with better assets.

There you go folks. Here’s hoping the Pistons make a minor move to at least bolster their bench a bit. I’ll trust in Joe no matter what he does. I’m thinking the Pistons right now are one of 3 teams that could come out of the East, with Chicago and Miami being the other two. Even if Miami lands Bibby or Chicago lands Gasol, I still like the Pistons chances. I guess we’ll see in just a few short days!

Also, if you think there’s a trade I missed, go ahead and try it with the ESPN’s trade machine, and post it if it works, I’d be interested to see it!